Thursday, March 6, 2014

The Satoshi That Can Be Doxed Is Not The True Satoshi

[CONTEXT: This was when the original Newsweek claims were still the only news. Dorian had yet to speak -- or even open his front door looking for lunch. This post merely weighs the claims of one eager reporter versus common sense & what 5 minutes searching the 'net turned up.]

[UPDATE: Now only a day later, it's all the more obvious that she had the wrong guy. It's now much much smaller than 1% -- like 1% of 1% -- and the amazing story in my mind has become that the media as a whole & a lot of the "reasonable" Internet still put Dorian's guilt % in the double digits -- or even above 50%. They are insane.]

It's way under 10% likely that this poor guy is Satoshi.

If you're convinced by Newsweek so far, you're not appreciating how journalistic sausage gets made.

Look over the described evidence trail. Look at the poor guy's Amazon reviews! Think of his financial troubles, his estrangement from his grown kids & wife; their financial struggles.

Actual most likely hypotheses, in order:
   1) This guy in San Bernardino (call him "SB") is just an uninvolved cranky old nerd (who's been afraid of specifically this kind of journalism for a couple years because his name got famous!). He's been "discovered" by a process of chasing hundreds of random trails until his was the only trail that didn't DISconfirm that he's SN. This is all just really bad journalism, including her inventing quotes (maybe not even technically outside the ridiculously huge bounds of routine journalistic quotation ethics) from him in his driveway that make him sound like he confessed past involvement -- and she probably feels he did so confess.
   Imagine the brave reporter waiting in his driveway for him to come outside, with cops as witnesses. She's invested a lot of wishful thinking by that time (quite the chase!), and she's now in an adversarial relationship with SB (because he doesn't want to talk at all, and is being difficult; out of hundreds of guys, he's the most difficult -- which is exactly why his trail looks so hot!). She would have been way primed to interpret his autism/avoidance as Signs Of Guilt. The cops might too, because they're used to managing crises of much dumber people & all this is just weird/foreign to them! (which is the same basic Street Cops Misinterpret Geeks fact behind the recent bicycle injury in the Mission -> calling the cops -> good samaritan ends up in jail)

   2) SB was somewhat involved early on, and his old name was somehow used (by him or others) as an early pen name that got locked in.

   [ 3 more hypotheses I haven't even thought of yet!]

   6) This story was planted by an actual conspiracy to discredit btc. If so, we'll soon see more stories discrediting other aspects of btc.

   7) SB is personally part of a (6) conspiracy! He's being paid/threatened to admit-but-not-admit involvement. His life seems so sad anyway, and his past has just enough non-disconfirmability for this to be a not-insane play by any conspirators.


   10) SB IS SN!! (Or at least the first SN, like the captured Silk Road guy might actually be the second+ DPR but was not the original DPR.) This hypothesis only works if a) SB/SN is super-socially-challenged & b) in all probability has literally lost his coins. His not being able to better manage this randomly sleuthing reporter & his being poor&sad really militate against this hypothesis.

Whoever SN is, he may have literally lost his early coins. We're biased against considering this -- because 1) we know now that they're SO VALUABLE, and 2) we know that SN has huge technical chops.

But: What if the reason the early coins have never moved is not SN's Total Faith In BTC but rather his early (within the first year or two) Despondent Neglect? A year in, it may have felt clear that his little project was Going Nowhere!

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